Publications

Le commerce des armes : un business comme un autre ?

Il est impossible de déterminer le nombre d’armes à feu qui circulent dans le monde mais une chose est certaine : il n’y en a jamais eu autant ! Selon des estimations récentes, il y en aurait aujourd’hui plus d’un milliard. Et si l’on considère les quantités qui sortent des arsenaux chaque année, ce flux n’est pas près de diminuer...

Résumé du SIPRI Yearbook 2018 - Armements, désarmement et sécurité internationale

L’Annuaire du SIPRI est une source indépendante et reconnue de données et d’analyses sur les armements, le désarmement et la sécurité internationale. Il donne un aperçu de l’évolution de la sécurité internationale, des armes et des technologies, des dépenses militaires, de la production et du commerce des armes, des conflits armés et de la gestion des conflits, ainsi que des initiatives de maîtrise des armes classiques, nucléaires, chimiques et biologiques.
Ceci est le résumé de la 50e édition, qui analyse les évolutions suivantes en 2018 :

La composante nucléaire du complexe militaro-industriel français

Le traité d’interdiction des armes nucléaires voté par une large majorité des pays de l’ONU (122 sur 193) en juillet 2017 témoigne d’une volonté largement partagée au plan international de voir le monde débarrassé d’une arme terrifiante, la seule capable de mettre un terme à toute vie humaine sur notre planète.

On ne marchande pas avec les armes

Les partis négociant la formation d’un gouvernement en Wallonie ont aujourd’hui deux options: continuer à autoriser l’exportation d’armes vers l’Arabie saoudite et les Emirats arabes unis et ainsi violer le droit tout en risquant de se rendre complices de crimes de guerre; ou stopper ces exportations conformément au droit, et ainsi montrer qu’ils ont entendu l’appel de la société civile, des instances internationales et des populations affectées par les armes wallonnes...

Le Fonds européen de la défense ouvre le débat sur les exportations d’armes

En 2017, l’Union européenne a fait un choix surprenant. Elle a décidé de se doter d’un Fonds européen de la défense (FEDEF) afin de soutenir les activités de recherche et de développement dans le domaine militaire. Pour la première fois de son histoire, l’UE pourrait donc disposer d’un outil budgétaire conséquent, en mesure de façonner l’industrie de défense de ses pays membres...

Monitoring of regional Stability in the Sahel region and in West Africa – April to June 2019

This quarterly monitoring, published by GRIP since 2011, aims to monitor the security situation in West Africa with a focus on Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Mali, Niger and Senegal. It examines in particular broad internal security issues, regional tensions, and cross-border and transnational crimes.

Crédit photo : UN Photo/Gema Cortes

Controlling the Trade of Torture Goods

The prohibition of torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment is one of the fundamental rights set out in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (Article 5). However, it is only recently that concrete measures have been taken in order to address the trade of torture or execution goods. This note traces recent developments regarding the measures to control the trade of this type of goods, and questions their relevance and effectiveness at the UN, European and Belgian levels.

Crédit photo : Omega Research Foundation

La Russie sera-t-elle expulsée du Conseil de l’Europe ?

Ce 24 juin, l’assemblée parlementaire du Conseil de l’Europe tiendra un vote sur une résolution a priori banale, intitulée « renforcer le processus décisionnel de l'Assemblée parlementaire concernant les pouvoirs et le vote ». Pourtant, derrière ce titre très procédurier se cache une crise majeure qui pourrait provoquer la sortie de la Russie du Conseil de l’Europe et questionne la manière dont les Européens doivent se comporter avec Moscou...

The governance of the European Defence Fund: sovereignty and integration issues

The Commission's proposal to create the European Defence Fund (EDF) in 2016 was greeted with contrasted reactions. A group of analysts strongly supports the EDF initiative and understands it as a step toward a more integrated European arms markets and defence policies, while another group fiercely opposes the EDF on the grounds of it is mainly a large subsidy to arms producers without a clear connection to the European integration project. In order to clarify the terms of the debate, this paper analyses the EDF governance. It claims that the main weakness of the Fund’s governance lies in the Common Security and Defence Policy of the EU which now should be now reformed.

Crédit photo : char Léopard au salon Eurosatory de l'armement terrestre à Paris (Benjamin Vokar/GRIP/2014)

Monitoring of regional Stability in the Sahel region and in West Africa – January to March 2019

This quarterly monitoring, published by GRIP since 2011, aims to monitor the security situation in West Africa with a focus on Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Mali, Niger and Senegal. It examines in particular broad internal security issues, regional tensions, and cross-border and transnational crimes.

Crédit photo: laviesenegalaise.com

Rwanda 1994. Quand l'Histoire s'écrit à la machette

Un génocide touche et tache toute l’humanité, dit Esther Mujawayo, rescapée de la nuit rwandaise. Comment pourrait-il en être autrement alors que le massacre des Tutsi est enclenché sous les yeux d’une force de maintien de la paix des Nations unies ! Et que les responsabilités de ce désastre sont nombreuses. Les stigmates de 1994 ne disparaitront pas de sitôt dans les brumes de l’Histoire…

Comment devient-on génocidaire? Et si nous étions tous capables de massacrer nos voisins (réédition)

Nouvelle édition, revue et augmentée

« Le barbare est celui qui ne s’oppose pas à la barbarie », disait Claude Lévi-Strauss. Au Rwanda, en ce sinistre printemps 1994, l’équation est certainement plus complexe pour celui qui se trouve au cœur de la tempête. Car résister, ce n’est pas seulement écouter sa conscience, faire preuve de courage, c’est aussi aller à contre-courant de certaines traditions, comme l’obéissance aux autorités. Quoi qu’il en soit, les paysans des collines sont nombreux à rejoindre le camp des tueurs…

The state of the relationship between Turkey and NATO: a weakened commitment

This Note addresses the current state of NATO-Turkish relationship through the lens of the Turkish defence policy. Although the Turkish defence effort complies with NATO’s expectations on paper, its drivers, goals and sustainability remain shaky, if not disputable. Of even greater concern is the Turkish military health which was voluntarily dealt a serious blow by the government in the wake of the military failed coup in 2016, after which other defence and security actors were pushed to the fore to counter the armed forces. If the purchase of Russian anti-aircraft weapon system S-400 seems to fill an operational gap rather than aiming a break from NATO, it is however likely to blur the real picture of the military capabilities available to the Alliance

Photo credit: www.opex360.com

Can a Belgian offer exist on the military UAV markets?

Can we envision a Belgian industrial offer on the military drone market? The question is thornier than it seems. This Analysis first attempts to provide and discuss the keys to understand the structure of the supply of military UAVs on international markets. Then, it identifies the main drones producers paying particular attention to the United States and Israel's unique trajectory. It also looks at the characteristics of the European offer and the challenges ahead. Finally, it positions Belgium in this overview of the industrial offer of military UAVs.

Crédit photo : MQ9B Sky Guardian - RIAT 2018

Cooperation between customs and export control authorities: a necessary common classification of goods?

The cooperation between customs and export control authorities for arms and dual-use items is essential to ensure the practical implementation of decisions taken at national, European and UN level. However, the two institutions have different visions related to their respective purposes and do not use the same definitions and product identification codes. This note examines the attempts of cooperation between customs and export control authorities in the context of arms trade. It proposes paths for reflection in order to analyse the key challenges related to the linkage between the two main classification systems for war materials and dual-use goods, the Harmonized System used by customs and the Export Control Classification System.

Photo credit: Customs and Excise: protection of exterior borders (2107.be)

Origin, means and indicators of the United Arab Emirates' military ambitions

At the turn of the 1980s and 1990s, the United Arab Emirates were beginning a complete change of their strategy, giving shape to new military ambitions. This research note seeks to identifie the drivers that have supported the country's defence trajectory for almost 30 years. The paper focuses on the UAE threat perception (mainly, Iran), the means mobilized to support the country's objectives (military spending, arms procurements), the reform of the armies, the development of strategic partnerships and, finally, the overseas military operations of the UAE.

Photo credit: Al Dhafra Air Base - Abu Dhabi - wikimapia.org

Armed groups and political actors in Turkey

This Analysis seeks to expose the various links between political actors and non-state armed groups in Turkey. Historically, both political parties and State’s services have made use of violent groups to serve their interests through various patterns of collaboration. However, the risk of violent clashes erupting between ideological or political groups has heightened following the failed coup attempt in July 2016, due to the increasingly polarizing rhetoric promoted by the government and tearing apart the society.

Photo credit: The Osmanen Germania Boxclub had their clubhouse in Neulandstraße (Osnabrueck) in 2016. The clubhouse no longer exists. Archive photo: Michael Gründel (source www.noz.de)

 
 

Kosovo: A gloomy picture 20 years after NATO's strikes

24 March 2019 will mark the twentieth anniversary of the beginning of NATO's air strikes against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. The intervention, according to the official speech, was supposed to "prevent a humanitarian disaster" or "stop genocide" against the Albanian population in Kosovo. However, the situation worsened during the weeks of bombardments, which seems to have triggered rather than prevented the announced "humanitarian disaster".

Twenty years later, how is the situation in the region shaping up? What is Kosovo's current status and place in regional and international relations, while relations with Belgrade, who does not recognize the independence of its southern province, seem to be at its lowest? What is the economic, political and social situation like?  Finally, what are its prospects for the future, at a time when the EU is losing its attraction and influence in the Balkans?

Photo credit: BalkanInsight - From right to left: Fatmir Limaj, Deputy vice-prime minister; Kadri Veseli, president of  the Parliament; Ramush Haradinaj, Prime minister; and (to the right of Federica Mogherini) Hashim Thaçi, president of the Kosovo. The four current top leaders of Kosovo in this photo are also suspected of organ trafficking.

Enjeux de la nouvelle loi suisse sur les armes

Dans le cadre de sa réponse aux attentats terroristes de 2015 et 2016 à Paris et Bruxelles, le Parlement européen et le Conseil de l’Union européenne (UE) ont adopté la directive 2017/853, qui durcit les conditions d’acquisition et de détention d’armes à feu pour des particuliers. La Suisse est concernée par cette directive en vertu des accords de Schengen et doit adapter sa législation afin de respecter les obligations qui en découlent. En effet, l’acquis de Schengen couvre un grand nombre de domaines en plus de la libre circulation des personnes, dont la circulation des armes.

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