This Note addresses the current state of NATO-Turkish relationship through the lens of the Turkish defence policy. Although the Turkish defence effort complies with NATO’s expectations on paper, its drivers, goals and sustainability remain shaky, if not disputable. Of even greater concern is the Turkish military health which was voluntarily dealt a serious blow by the government in the wake of the military failed coup in 2016, after which other defence and security actors were pushed to the fore to counter the armed forces. If the purchase of Russian anti-aircraft weapon system S-400 seems to fill an operational gap rather than aiming a break from NATO, it is however likely to blur the real picture of the military capabilities available to the Alliance

Photo credit: www.opex360.com

The cooperation between customs and export control authorities for arms and dual-use items is essential to ensure the practical implementation of decisions taken at national, European and UN level. However, the two institutions have different visions related to their respective purposes and do not use the same definitions and product identification codes. This note examines the attempts of cooperation between customs and export control authorities in the context of arms trade. It proposes paths for reflection in order to analyse the key challenges related to the linkage between the two main classification systems for war materials and dual-use goods, the Harmonized System used by customs and the Export Control Classification System.

Photo credit: Customs and Excise: protection of exterior borders (2107.be)

At the turn of the 1980s and 1990s, the United Arab Emirates were beginning a complete change of their strategy, giving shape to new military ambitions. This research note seeks to identifie the drivers that have supported the country's defence trajectory for almost 30 years. The paper focuses on the UAE threat perception (mainly, Iran), the means mobilized to support the country's objectives (military spending, arms procurements), the reform of the armies, the development of strategic partnerships and, finally, the overseas military operations of the UAE.

Photo credit: Al Dhafra Air Base - Abu Dhabi - wikimapia.org

24 March 2019 will mark the twentieth anniversary of the beginning of NATO's air strikes against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. The intervention, according to the official speech, was supposed to "prevent a humanitarian disaster" or "stop genocide" against the Albanian population in Kosovo. However, the situation worsened during the weeks of bombardments, which seems to have triggered rather than prevented the announced "humanitarian disaster".

Twenty years later, how is the situation in the region shaping up? What is Kosovo's current status and place in regional and international relations, while relations with Belgrade, who does not recognize the independence of its southern province, seem to be at its lowest? What is the economic, political and social situation like?  Finally, what are its prospects for the future, at a time when the EU is losing its attraction and influence in the Balkans?

Photo credit: BalkanInsight - From right to left: Fatmir Limaj, Deputy vice-prime minister; Kadri Veseli, president of  the Parliament; Ramush Haradinaj, Prime minister; and (to the right of Federica Mogherini) Hashim Thaçi, president of the Kosovo. The four current top leaders of Kosovo in this photo are also suspected of organ trafficking.

Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers and Buk anti-aircraft missiles, Kiowa Warrior and Mi-35 helicopters, F-16 and MiG-29 fighters, ... Croatia and Serbia's arms purchases seem to respond to each other, and some fear a repetition of the 1990s scenario, when the rivalry between the two Yugoslav republics led the Balkans into a bloody conflict.

This note first explains the origin of the armed forces of both countries and their respective evolutions, then sets out various indicators (military expenditures, arms imports, manoeuvres, etc.) that can be used to assess their respective military strength.

This suggests that while both countries are in the process of renewing their weapons, the level of rearmament remains rather modest at the European level. Above all, the absence of any real point of contention seems to rule out any risk of armed conflict in the short term.

Crédit photo : MiG-29 livrés par la Russie lors de leur présentation à l’aéroport militaire de Batajnica, près de Belgrade, en octobre 2017