The Iranian deal under threat

The signature of the JCPoA in 2015 has rightly been hailed as a major diplomatic success for the international community and the nuclear non-proliferation regimes. The rationale behind the agreement was simple, on the one hand Iran would abandon its nuclear program and accept a strong regime of inspections, on the other hand all nuclear related sanctions at the level of the UN, EU and US would be lifted and Iran would find its place back in the global trade flows. But after the election of Donald Trump, the entire deal seems to be in jeopardy. Trump, who never hid his disdain for the deal, issued an ultimatum to Iran and the other partners of the JCPoA, threatening to terminate US participation if it was not “fixed”. This Analysis aims to expose what the US see as “flaws” in the JCPoA and what are the Iranians claims about what they see as US violations of the deal. It will also put the role the Europeans into perspective, should the US walk away from the deal...

Crédit photo : Signature du JCPoA à Vienne en juilet 2015 (crédit : ONU/Dragan Tatic)

 

Diversion of arms: the weakness of European practices in risk assessment

The standards and procedures of EU Member States to strengthen arms export controls, including preventing and countering diversion, are considered to be among the highest in the world. Yet today, not a month goes by without a Member State being questioned about its export decisions. The publication of cases of diversion - suspected or proven - of European weapons in the Middle East is increasing, and now from countries that are considered as allies and among the best customers of the EU countries. This Analysis presents some of the challenges in preventing and combating the diversion of weapons that EU Member States face when authorizing exports.

(Photo credit: militaryedge.org, Syrian Rebel with a PKM)

 

RCA: difficile politique d’apaisement. La justice transitionnelle menacée?

Malgré la signature de plusieurs accords politiques depuis 2016, les groupes armés omniprésents dans douze des quatorze provinces de la République centrafricaine (RCA) poursuivent leurs exactions. Depuis début 2017, un nouveau cycle de violences communautaires et confessionnelles, rappelle celui de 2013-2014.

La mission EUNAFVOR MED Libye: des critiques justifiées?

Le 19 avril 2015 a marqué un tournant dans la position adoptée par l’Union européenne (UE) vis-à-vis de ce qui est désigné aujourd’hui comme la "crise méditerranéenne" ou la "crise migratoire". Ce jour-là, un bateau contenant environ 700 migrants au départ des côtes libyennes chavire près de l’île italienne de Lampedusa, causant la mort d’au moins 400 d’entre eux. Cette tragédie largement médiatisée rend soudain manifeste l’augmentation des flux migratoires illégaux à travers la Méditerranée, ainsi que le juteux trafic de migrants qui s’y greffe. L’intérêt particulier de l’Europe envers la Libye découle précisément de ces deux phénomènes complexes, tous deux causés par la guerre civile et l’instabilité politique qui règne dans le pays depuis 2011...

Libyan crisis: role and concerns of the EU and its member states

When the regime of Muammar Gaddafi collapsed under NATO bombs, in 2011, France and the United Kingdom, the main instigators and actors of the Libyan campaign, were far from understanding that Libya would become the theater of a never-rending and complex conflict, much like those who torment the Middle East.

The difference in Libya, however, is that the European Union and its members play a leading role. In spite of conflicting policies and interests, they have been able to preserve a certain unity. The relationship between Italy and France in the Libyan case, however, remains marked by mutual mistrust and misunderstanding

(Photo credit: On 25 July, Emmanuel Macron invited Fayez Sarraj, President of the Presidential Council of the Government of National Accord, and Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army. Source: Elysee.fr)

The Ukrainian defense industry: one foot in the USSR, another in NATO

Since its creation, the Ukrainian defense industry has kept very close ties with its Russian counterpart. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the support from the Russian Federation to separatist in Eastern Ukraine forced a brutal and rapid disconnection between the two industrial complexes. UkrOboronProm, the umbrella company for Ukrainian state-owned defense companies has set itself several objectives: provide the Ukrainian army with modern gears, replace Russia as a provider of components for the defense industries and important customers, reform the defense industry to make it competitive and finally move towards the adoption of NATO standards. The Ukrainian industry is also switching from a “Russian-inspired model” to a western model that involves a bigger share of private initiative. In order to succeed in this transition, the Ukrainian military industrial complex will need a great deal of internal and external political support, strong quality control mechanisms and the capacity to rebuild its reputation from the Ianoukovitch era.

Crédit photo: The Vast Soviet Tank Graveyard at Kharkov, Ukraine - Urban Ghosts Media (Tom, July 2015)

SWOT ANALYSIS

Monitoring of regional Stability in the Sahel region and in West Africa – October to December 2017

This quarterly monitoring, published by GRIP since 2011, aims to monitor the security situation in West Africa with a focus on Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Mali, Niger and Senegal. It examines in particular broad internal security issues, regional tensions, and cross-border and transnational crimes...

Crédit photo : MINUSMA Peacekeeper Patrols Airstrip in Kidal, Northern Mali - UN Photo/Marco Dormino

Est du Congo: à qui profite la prolifération des groupes armés?

Plus que jamais, les milices et groupes armés pullulent en République démocratique du Congo (RDC). Des régions jusque-là épargnées sont touchées, et tout particulièrement le Kasaï, mais la violence et l’insécurité – déjà omniprésentes depuis plus de deux décennies – sont en pleine recrudescence dans l’est du pays.

La défense européenne, entre Doctor FED & Mister PESCO

Les États membres de l’Union européenne (UE) sont persévérants. Depuis près d’un an, ils clament vouloir relancer la Politique européenne de sécurité et de défense commune (PSDC), qu’ils avaient créée en 1999 sans toutefois avoir l’intention de la faire fonctionner sérieusement. Le contexte sécuritaire international se faisant plus pressant, ils ont décidé de la remettre en ordre de marche, d’autant plus que leur principal bouc-émissaire en la matière, le Royaume-Uni, s’apprête à tirer sa révérence...

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