Uncertain balance of power in Nagorny-Karabakh :Towards renewed hostilities ?

In spite of a shaky ceasefire entered into force in 1994, Azerbaijan and Armenia have remained at daggers drawn over Nagorny-Karabakh. Benefiting from massive oil revenues, Azerbaijan has dramatically stepped up military expenditures over the last decade partly aimed at purchasing game-changing weapons. On the other side, Armenia has sought to offset its scarce financial resources with increased security cooperation, if not bandwagoning, with Russia, which in turn used it as a way to prevent Azerbaijan’s ally Turkey from encroaching too far into South Caucasus. Nonetheless, with the sale of S-300 PMU2’s systems to Azerbaijan, Russia seems to have tacitly agreed on a potential resumption of hostilities from Baku. 

Crédit photo : Musée des soldats morts au combat de la République du Haut-Karabakh, Stepanakert (Source : Adam Jones / LCC)

The author would like to warmly acknowledge all the persons who contributed to this paper, with a special mention to Mr. Masis Ingilizian, military analyst for Bellingcat.