Vers une montée en puissance de l’engagement allemand dans la sécurité en Afrique de l’Ouest ?

Dans le "Livre blanc" de 2016 portant sur la politique de sécurité et l’avenir de l’armée allemande, l’Afrique ne fait pas partie des priorités de l’Allemagne. Le Sahel, présenté comme une zone d’"États fragiles" (fragile Staatlichkeit) caractérisée par une "mauvaise gouvernance" (schlechte Regierungsführung), n’y figure pas comme un enjeu important. Pourtant, depuis 2017, l’Allemagne accompagne la France aux côtés des membres du G5 Sahel pour soutenir entre autres la création d’une Force conjointe visant à lutter contre le terrorisme et la criminalité transfrontalière dans la région...

L’Organisation Badr en Irak : l’ancrage étatique d’une milice pro-iranienne

Le 9 décembre 2017, le Premier ministre irakien Haïdar al-Abadi annonçait la défaite de l’État islamique (EI), après trois ans de conflit en Irak et en Syrie. Si la contribution des milices chiites dans la chute du califat est indéniable, les exactions commises par ces groupes armés au cours de leur lutte restent fortement décriées. L’instrumentalisation de certaines milices par l’Iran suscite également de nombreuses inquiétudes, principalement à l’heure de la reconstruction. Au cœur des préoccupations figure notamment l’Organisation Badr. Cette milice chiite, l’une des plus puissantes en Irak, revendique ouvertement son allégeance à Téhéran tout en disposant d’une implantation significative au sein de l’appareil politique irakien. Cette singularité lui permet ainsi d’opérer dans une  véritable « zone grise »[1], dont l’autonomie ne cesse de croître. Au vu de son antériorité mais surtout de sa participation au conflit contre l’EI, dans quelle mesure l’Organisation Badr est-elle susceptible de déstabiliser l’Irak post-conflit ?

Monitoring of regional Stability in the Sahel region and in West Africa – January to March 2018

This quarterly monitoring, published by GRIP since 2011, aims to monitor the security situation in West Africa with a focus on Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Mali, Niger and Senegal. It examines in particular broad internal security issues, regional tensions, and cross-border and transnational crimes.

Credit: demonstrations in Conakry (source : Cellou Binani)

 

Risk assessment in arms export controls: indicators and risk factors

In recent years, numerous indicators, or indexes, have been developed by international and non-governmental organizations with the objective of assessing State’s performances on an increasingly wider array of issues. These indicators now represent a systematic and important source of information on political, security and human rights issues of one given country. This Note intends to analyze the use of indicators as risk assessment tools in the field of arms exports control. The aim is to contribute to improved practices while assessing risks associated with arms export and to the consolidation of the User Guide on the EU Common Position.

The South China Sea: the long road of diplomacy

The South China Sea is a strategic area of transit for a large share of global trade. It is also a region characterized by territorial and maritime disputes between China and several of its Southeast Asian neighbors. In July 2016, an arbitration tribunal ruled that Chinese claims were not consistent with the provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). However, this clarification of the rule of law did not facilitate negotiations between China and its neighbors. On the contrary, it led to a consolidation of a discussion format where power asymmetry and political games dominate. This note aims at detailing this apparent paradox, between an eroded rule of law and a falsely reinforced diplomatic channel.

Crédit photo : UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe

Volunteers’ battalions and village guards: two risky end-users in Ukraine and Turkey

Arms exporters are used to deliver products to governmental authorities, such as regular military or established police forces, private security companies and sometimes civilians holding a valid permit. However, another kind of end-user can top the list of recipients: pro-governmental militias. These militias are believed to share the same responsibilities as soldiers and policemen, such as law enforcement or external defense, while distancing themselves from the chain of command of regular forces and their rules of engagement. This Analysis seeks to highlight risks and challenges posed by arms exports to these non-state actors with two case-studies: Ukrainian volunteers’ battalions and Turkish village guards.

Crédit photo : Camion blindé improvisé du batailon Azov en Ukraine

The Iranian deal under threat

The signature of the JCPoA in 2015 has rightly been hailed as a major diplomatic success for the international community and the nuclear non-proliferation regimes. The rationale behind the agreement was simple, on the one hand Iran would abandon its nuclear program and accept a strong regime of inspections, on the other hand all nuclear related sanctions at the level of the UN, EU and US would be lifted and Iran would find its place back in the global trade flows. But after the election of Donald Trump, the entire deal seems to be in jeopardy. Trump, who never hid his disdain for the deal, issued an ultimatum to Iran and the other partners of the JCPoA, threatening to terminate US participation if it was not “fixed”. This Analysis aims to expose what the US see as “flaws” in the JCPoA and what are the Iranians claims about what they see as US violations of the deal. It will also put the role the Europeans into perspective, should the US walk away from the deal...

Crédit photo : Signature du JCPoA à Vienne en juilet 2015 (crédit : ONU/Dragan Tatic)

 

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